The Teams:
Leinster: 15 Ian Madigan, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Gordon D'Arcy, 12 Andrew Goodman, 11 Isa Nacewa, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Sean O'Brien, 5 Damien Browne, 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Heinke Van Der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Michael Bent, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Kevin McLaughlin, 21 Issac Boss, 22 Andrew Conway, 23 David Kearney.
Clermont: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Aurélien Rougerie (c), 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Naipolioni Nalaga, 10 Brock James/David Skrela, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Julien Bardy, 6 Julien Bonnaire, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Jamie Cudmore, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Raphael Chaume.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Daniel Kotze, 19 Loïc Jacquet, 20 Alexandre Lapandry, 21 Ludo Radosavljevic, 22 David Skrela/Benson Stanley, 23 Regan King.
Kick-off: 15.40 GMT, Aviva Stadium, Dublin.
Referee: Wayne Barnes
After last weeks abrasive encounter at Stade Marcel Michelin we can expect more of the same from Dublin this evening. Today's game is simply do or die for Leinster. If they lose their title defense is effectively dead and if Clermont come out with four points they are all but through to the quarter-finals.
Last Week:
Leinster and Clermont are without doubt two of the strongest sides in Europe at the moment. Both have strong packs, exciting backlines and resilient defense. Unfortunately from a spectators point of view last week we saw a bit too much of the resilient defense and not a huge amount of the exciting backlines. The game was, however, enthralling to watch, a physical battle between two teams playing at the very highest standard of the game. In the end, as normally happens when teams visit Clermont, the home side came away with a hard fought win but Leister did salvage a losing bonus point which is no mean feat and could prove crucial when deciding who progresses to the knockout stages of the competition. The teams last met in a group stage double-header in the 2010/2011 season when Leinster got a bonus point away and won at home. They of course ended up winning the group and eventually their second Heineken Cup.
Leinster:
Leinster made two changes from last week, Eoin Reddan comes in for Isaac Boss at scrum half and Shane Jennings in for Kevin McLaughlin in the back row (Séan O'Brien shifts to the blindside with Jennings coming in at 7). Both these changes hint to a more attacking approach from Joe Schmidt. Reddan's strengths are his quick distribution and accurate passing where Boss offers more of a physical presence. Leinster obviously knew what to expect going to France and so they should after the several times these two sides have been drawn against each other. Clermont like to play in typical Top 14 style and them being at home there was no way Leinster were going to make them play otherwise. Leinster's game plan was to match Clermont at their own game. They prepared for a battle of attrition and therefore picked a scrum half who could deal with that type of game including heavy pressure from the Clermont back row around the fringes. McLaughlin would also have been picked because of this game plan. McLaughlin offers more size and stronger ball carrying around the fringes than Jennings. McLaughlin is also an excellent back-row lineout operator and his selection helped cancel out Clermont's Nathan Hines who is one of the best in the world. The selection of Reddan hints towards Leinster wanting to feed their backs with more quick ball and play a wider game stretching Clermont out of their comfort zone.
Jennings is a traditional openside and is much more mobile than both McLaughlin and O'Brien. His job will to be secure quick ball for Leinster to play with and disrupting Clermont's ball preventing them from building up any momentum. This will be particularly important looking at how fierce the breakdown battle was last week. He will aim to control the tempo at which the game is played at both when Leinster and have the ball and when Clermont have it. rather than making tackles and carrying around the fringes like the Leinster backrow did last week Jennings will operate in wider areas linking up with the backline in attack and chopping down Clermont's midfield runners which is where Leinster will try and force Clermont to play. The inclusion of Jennings means that Séan O'Brien moves to 6 and has had the burden of trying to be at every breakdown securing Leinsters ball removed from his back and he is now free to do more of what he does best, running with the ball in open play.
Clermont:
For me, Clermont are one of the most frustrating teams in world rugby. You look at their team sheet and you think, "How have they not won a Heineken Cup yet?". Their line-up is world class and often we see how great they can be but they somehow always fail to deliver at the most important times and often don't fulfill their potential. They are the prime example as to why French teams with all their money just haven't delivered in Europe recently with the exception of Toulouse. The Top 14 game is just too limited. It is almost as if the teams are afraid to lose because of all the money they have invested. Week-in-week-out the best players in the world are sent out to run into each other and bash the others into submission with an out-half behing them kicking everything. You can't help but feel this is a huge waste of talent. We know Clermont have an extremely strong and abrasive forward pack and we see them being used every week but rarely do we see some of the most exciting backs in the world in Wesley Fofana and Sitivini Sivivatu given a license to show all their talents.
Brock James faces a late fitness test and will be replaced by David Skrella if he is declared unfit but I son't think there is much difference between the too. Both are stellar kickers but out-half is the one position where Clermont lack a world class player. Under pressure both these players are vulnerable and a bit flaky. They are inconsistent and if Leinster start to grab a hold of the game either of them could buckle.
Verdict:
This promises to be another tight and fascinating encounter. Whoever wins it wont be by much. Leinster will have to grab hold of the game early on and not let Clermont drag the game into a battle of the packs. If that happens then its anyones game. I think that home advantage and a couple of astute tactical changes should tip the balance in Leinsters favour but not by much.
Leinster By 5
Tighthead